It’s unlikely that impeachment will find 67 votes in the Senate for removal. The process will almost certainly end with Trump acquitted, and acquitted in a reelection year.

The political consequences of acquittal are obviously unpredictable but could be favorable to Trump’s reelection: Trump supporters may be mobilized, Trump opponents demoralized, and Democratic presidential candidates distracted from issues that may be more potent at the voting booth.

Meanwhile, impeachment is likely to do Trump less and less political harm the longer it lasts. As the Trump presidency daily proves, people can get used to anything. This latest Trump scandal led to an impeachment inquiry because it happened so fast—the shock was still fresh.

But the Comey firing, the racist tirades, the “if it’s what you say I love it” email—those were all once shocking too. Then they blurred into the avalanche of Trump awfulness. Trump is protected by the sheer number of his high crimes and misdemeanors.

Some impeachment advocates compare today’s process to that of 1973–74, when Richard Nixon’s position gradually crumbled. Maybe, but 1973 and ’74 were years of severe economic distress, a losing war in Vietnam, rising crime in U.S. cities, and long lines at gas stations. Nixon headed a party in the minority in both the House and Senate, and a party less cohesive than the Republican Party of today. Once it split over Watergate, he fell. Trump’s party may lose a defector or two, but it won’t split.